Currency Unions, Product Introductions, and the Real Exchange Rate

Currency Unions and International Integration

This paper characterizes the integration patterns of international currency unions (such as the CFA Franc zone). We empirically explore different features of currency unions, and compare them to countries with sovereign monies by examining the criteria for Mundell’s concept of an optimum currency area. We find that members of currency unions are more integrated than countries with their own cur...

The Interest Rate–Exchange Rate Nexus in Currency Crises

Sharp exchange rate depreciations in the East Asian crisis countries (Indonesia, Korea, and Thailand) raised doubts about the efficacy of increasing interest rates to defend the currency. Using a standard monetary model of exchange rate determination, this paper shows that tighter monetary policy was in fact associated with an appreciation of the exchange rate in these countries and during the ...

Real and Financial Shocks, Exchange Rate Regimes and the Probability of a Currency Crisis

Currency Exchange Rate Forecasting using Associative Models

Associative Models were created and used for pattern recognition tasks, but recently such models have shown good forecasting capabilities; by a preprocessing of a time series and some fit of the Model. In this paper, the Gamma Classifier is used as a novel alternative for currency exchange rate forecasting, where experimental results indicate that the proposed method can be effective in the Exc...

Currency Exchange Rate Forecasting From News Headlines

We investigate how money market news headlines can be used to forecast intraday currency exchange rate movements. The innovation of the approach is that, unlike analysis based on quantifiable information, the forecasts are produced from text describing the current status of world financial markets, as well as political and general economic news. In contrast to numeric time series data textual d...